Coronavirus Thread

Post by **volvolugnut** » 05 Feb 2021, 09:27

I have created a new spreadsheet looking at the possible immunity of each state from vaccination, previous cases and current cases of COVID-19. The total of these percentages should give a good indication of the relative safety of each state. Information is gathered from Worldometer and New York Times published information. Any errors and misrepresentation are my own. Results will change daily, but I will try to report shortly after each weekend.

The top 5 states are Alabama, Arizona, Ohio, Arkansas, and Tennessee. The bottom 5 states are Washington, Wisconsin, Idaho, Hawaii, and Pennsylvania.

volvolugnut

Post by **volvolugnut** » 06 Feb 2021, 08:12

volvolugnut wrote: ↑05 Feb 2021, 08:51 More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for February 5, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Guam (0.169) with 7636 cases, Minnesota (0.124) with 466,224 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.120) with 2449 cases, New Hampshire (0.117) with 67,595 cases, and Arkansas (0.107) with 304,723 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. Guam has been in top 5 list for 14 of last 36 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 134 of last 184 days. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 58 of last 113 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 90 of last 129 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 87 of last 169 days.

Oregon, Delaware, Kansas, and Alaska did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. No areas were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). District of Columbia, Guam, Mississippi, US Virgin Islands, Virginia, and Navajo Nation were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This column is an early warning for high state growth rate.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0129 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0124. This is not population or case number weighted. Since Sunday, January 17, 2021, 19 of the 20 days had growth rates below 0.020. A growth rate of 0.020 implies a doubling of new cases in 35 days. The last date growth rates were this low was in early October 2020.

Daily active case counts have the beginning of a flat line trend. This last occurred for several weeks in September 2020. This is encouraging.

volvolugnut

Post by **volvolugnut** » 07 Feb 2021, 08:19

volvolugnut wrote: ↑06 Feb 2021, 08:12 More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for February 6, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: New Hampshire (0.115) with 68,061 cases, Tennessee (0.114) with 742,213 cases, Minnesota (0.111) with 467,217 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.106) with 2456 cases, and Arkansas (0.079) with 306,064 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 91 of last 130 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 135 of last 185 days. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 58 of last 114 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 88 of last 170 days.

Oregon, Delaware, Kansas, and Alaska did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. No areas were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Puerto Rico was over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This column is an early warning for high state growth rate.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0108 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0129. This is not population or case number weighted. Since Sunday, January 17, 2021, 20 of the 21 days had growth rates below 0.020. A growth rate of 0.020 implies a doubling of new cases in 35 days. The last date growth rates were this low was in early September 2020. Yesterday's growth rate was the lowest since September 7, 2020 when it was .00997.

Daily active case counts have the beginning of a flat line trend. This last occurred for several weeks in September 2020. This is encouraging.

volvolugnut

Post by **volvolugnut** » 07 Feb 2021, 18:29

volvolugnut wrote: ↑05 Feb 2021, 09:27 I have created a new spreadsheet looking at the possible immunity of each state from vaccination, previous cases and current cases of COVID-19. The total of these percentages should give a good indication of the relative safety of each state. Information is gathered from Worldometer and New York Times published information. Any errors and misrepresentation are my own. Results will change daily, but I will try to report shortly after each weekend.

State Immunity results for week ending February 6, 2021.
The top 5 states are North Dakota, South Dakota, Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Utah. The bottom 5 states are Hawaii, Vermont, Puerto Rico, Maine, and Oregon.

volvolugnut

Post by **volvolugnut** » 08 Feb 2021, 10:08

volvolugnut wrote: ↑07 Feb 2021, 08:19 More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for February 7, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Islands (0.164) with 2466 cases, Minnesota (0.104) with 468,118 cases, Tennessee (0.084) with 744,600 cases, Oklahoma (0.083) with 403,954 cases, and New Hampshire (0.079) with 68,379 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 59 of last 115 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 136 of last 186 days. Tennessee has been in top 5 list for 4 of last 10 days. Oklahoma has been in top 5 list for 31 of last 79 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 92 of last 131 days.

Oregon, Delaware, Kansas, and Alaska did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. No areas were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Puerto Rico was over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This column is an early warning for high state growth rate.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00917 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0108. This is not population or case number weighted. Since Sunday, January 17, 2021, 21 of the 22 days had growth rates below 0.020. A growth rate of 0.020 implies a doubling of new cases in 35 days. The last date growth rates were this low was in early September 2020. Yesterday's growth rate was the lowest ever reported since my calculations were started February 29, 2020. The previous low was September 7, 2020 when it was 0.00997.

Daily active case counts have the beginning of a flat line trend. This last occurred for several weeks in September 2020. This is encouraging.

volvolugnut

Post by **volvolugnut** » 08 Feb 2021, 10:24

volvolugnut wrote: ↑31 Jan 2021, 12:17 More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

To give some context to these changes, I have calculated the average growth rate for each week back to April. The growth rate is calculated as the number of new cases each day divided by the number of active cases for the previous day. There is a typical weekly pattern of rising cases each week and falling case numbers on the weekends. I have calculated the 7 day average of the growth rate for Saturday to Friday of each week.

Using the 7 day growth rate, a calculation can be made of the number of days for the new cases to double. This calculation uses (1+Growth Rate) to the exponential of 1/X and solved for when this equation equals 2 (doubling of new cases). Variable X is the number of days to double the new cases count. I have made this calculation using 14 day and 21 day growth rate averages as well.

A graph using the average for 7, 14, and 21 days and showing the days to double new case counts for April to middle of November is below. Another graph shows the 7 day average new virus cases counts for the same period.

Inspection of the graphs show that when the line for days to double becomes flat, there may soon be a decline or increase to the count of new cases. This has happened three times since April. When the slope of the line for doubling is steep, either going up or down, there is unlikely to be a change soon in the growth or decline in new cases.

The current lines for case doubling now shows some indication of going flat soon. I expect we will see the number of new virus cases continue to increase, but we may have a change of direction starting. Perhaps the changing recommendations for controlling the virus are beginning to have an impact.

There was an error in my original logic posted on November 14. During the upward slope periods of the Days to Double graph, the actual number of daily cases are declining. I reconsidered how to resolve this contradiction in logic.

I have added a new graph with a calculation of the slope of the new case numbers (current case count minus past case count divided by the number of days). The slope of a curve is the rate of change of the plotted line. If we were plotting velocity, the slope would be the acceleration. The slope is a better representation of the virus growth because the slope goes negative when the trend in cases starts going down.

volvolugnut

I have updated the graphs for the latest week (Jan 31 to Feb 6). The New Case Slope graph shows a decrease in the past week and continues negative. We have not seen this degree of negative growth in new cases since the start of the Covid-19 battle. Meanwhile Days to Double graph shows a strong increasing trend for 7 day, 14 day and 21 day lines in the past week. The Days to Double is similar to the period in early September of last year.

There is good evidence here for encouragement. New case numbers continue to decrease.

Stay safe out there.

volvolugnut

Post by **volvolugnut** » 09 Feb 2021, 08:31

volvolugnut wrote: ↑08 Feb 2021, 10:08 More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for February 8, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Wyoming (0.159) with 52,784 cases, Guam (0.146) with 7664 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.099) with 2473 cases, Minnesota (0.066) with 468,682 cases, and Vermont (0.046) with 13,046 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 55 of last 132 days. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 52 of last 101 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 125 of last 172 days.

Oregon, Delaware, Kansas, and Alaska did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Connecticut, Washington, US Military, and Federal Prisons were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Idaho was over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). Connecticut, US Military, and Federal Prisons did not report the previous day. This column is an early warning for high state growth rate.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00917 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00917. This is not population or case number weighted. Since Sunday, January 17, 2021, 22 of the 23 days had growth rates below 0.020. A growth rate of 0.020 implies a doubling of new cases in 35 days. The last date growth rates were this low for many days was in early September 2020. Yesterday's growth rate was the lowest ever reported since my calculations were started February 29, 2020.

Daily active case counts have the beginning of a flat line trend. This last occurred for several weeks in September 2020. This is encouraging.

volvolugnut

Post by **volvolugnut** » 10 Feb 2021, 08:38

volvolugnut wrote: ↑09 Feb 2021, 08:31 More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for February 9, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Islands (0.203) with 2485 cases, New Hampshire (0.129) with 68,918 cases, Montana (0.116) with 96,288 cases, Arkansas (0.096) with 308,848 cases, and Guam (0.087) with 7673 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 53 of last 102 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 85 of last 118 days. Montana has been in top 5 list for 7 of last 27 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 79 of last 158 days. Guam has been in top 5 list for 4 of last 7 days.

Oregon, Delaware, Kansas, and Alaska did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. No areas were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Missouri and Montana were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This column is an early warning for high state growth rate.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00984 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00890. This is not population or case number weighted. Since Sunday, January 17, 2021, 23 of the 24 days had growth rates below 0.020. A growth rate of 0.020 implies a doubling of new cases in 35 days. The last date growth rates were this low for many days was in early September 2020.

Daily active case counts have the beginning of a flat line trend with a slight decline. This last occurred for several weeks in September 2020. This is very encouraging.

volvolugnut

Post by **volvolugnut** » 11 Feb 2021, 09:01

volvolugnut wrote: ↑10 Feb 2021, 08:38 More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for February 10, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Islands (0.294) with 2505 cases, Tennessee (0.113) with 750,409 cases, Guam (0.109) with 7683 cases, New Hampshire (0.104) with 69,247 cases, and Montana (0.086) with 96,595 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 54 of last 103 days. Guam has been in top 5 list for 5 of last 8 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 86 of last 119 days. Montana has been in top 5 list for 8 of last 28 days.

Oregon, Delaware, Kansas, and Alaska did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Nebraska, Rhode Island, and Federal Prisons were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Iowa, US Virgin Islands, US Military, and Veterans Affairs were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). US Military did not report the previous day. This column is an early warning for high state growth rate.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0100 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00984. This is not population or case number weighted. Since Sunday, January 17, 2021, 24 of the 25 days had growth rates below 0.020. A growth rate of 0.020 implies a doubling of new cases in 35 days. The last date growth rates were this low for many days was in early September 2020.

Daily active case counts have the beginning of a flat line trend with a slight decline. This last occurred for several weeks in September 2020. This is very encouraging.

volvolugnut

Post by **volvolugnut** » 12 Feb 2021, 09:29

volvolugnut wrote: ↑11 Feb 2021, 09:01 More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for February 11, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: North Dakota (0.183) with 98,353 cases, Wyoming (0.130) with 52,979 cases, South Dakota (0.130) with 109,859 cases, Minnesota (0.123) with 470,803 cases, and New Hampshire (0.116) with 69,612 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 130 of last 210 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 56 of last 135 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 126 of last 175 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 87 of last 120 days.

Oregon, Delaware, Kansas, and Alaska did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Louisiana, and North Dakota were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Colorado, Hawaii, Michigan, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Wisconsin, Wyoming, and Veterans Affairs were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight).

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0108 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0100. This is not population or case number weighted. Since Saturday January 30, 2021, 13 of the 13 days had growth rates below 0.015. A growth rate of 0.015 implies a doubling of new cases in 46 days. The growth rates have not been this low for this many days since I began recording data.

Daily active case counts have the beginning of a flat line trend with a slight decline. This last occurred for several weeks in September 2020. This is very encouraging.

volvolugnut

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