Coronavirus Thread

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for February 12, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Islands (0.226) with 2524 cases, New Hampshire (0.146) with 70,072 cases, North Dakota (0.142) with 98,466 cases, Minnesota (0.139) with 471,851 cases, and Wyoming (0.133) with 53,086 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 55 of last 105 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 88 of last 121 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 131 of last 211 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 127 of last 176 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 57 of last 136 days.

Oregon, Delaware, Kansas, and Alaska did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. US Military and Veterans Affairs were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Colorado, North Dakota, and Vermont were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). US Military did not report the previous day.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0105 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0108. This is not population or case number weighted. Since Saturday January 30, 2021, 14 of the 14 days had growth rates below 0.015. A growth rate of 0.015 implies a doubling of new cases in 46 days. The growth rates have not been this low for this many days since I began recording data.

Daily active case counts have the beginning of a flat line trend with a slight decline. This last occurred for several weeks in September 2020. This is very encouraging.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for February 13, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: New Hampshire (0.135) with 70,505 cases, Minnesota (0.117) with 472,791 cases, North Dakota (0.106) with 98,551 cases, Montana (0.080) with 97,297 cases, and Arkansas (0.076) with 312,562 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 97 of last 137 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 140 of last 192 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 140 of last 226 days. Montana has been in top 5 list for 13 of last 46 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 90 of last 177 days. The last 5 days had incorrect information for the days in the top 5 states. The information was corrected for today.

Oregon, Delaware, Kansas, and Alaska did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Nebraska was over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Missouri, Puerto Rico, and Veterans Affairs were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00901 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0105. This is not population or case number weighted. Since Saturday January 30, 2021, 15 of the 15 days had growth rates below 0.015. A growth rate of 0.015 implies a doubling of new cases in 46 days. The growth rates have not been this low for this many days since I began recording data.

Daily active case counts have the beginning of a flat line trend with a slight decline. This last occurred for several weeks in September 2020. This is very encouraging.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.


To give some context to these changes, I have calculated the average growth rate for each week back to April. The growth rate is calculated as the number of new cases each day divided by the number of active cases for the previous day. There is a typical weekly pattern of rising cases each week and falling case numbers on the weekends. I have calculated the 7 day average of the growth rate for Saturday to Friday of each week.

Using the 7 day growth rate, a calculation can be made of the number of days for the new cases to double. This calculation uses (1+Growth Rate) to the exponential of 1/X and solved for when this equation equals 2 (doubling of new cases). Variable X is the number of days to double the new cases count. I have made this calculation using 14 day and 21 day growth rate averages as well.

A graph using the average for 7, 14, and 21 days and showing the days to double new case counts for April to middle of November is below. Another graph shows the 7 day average new virus cases counts for the same period.

Inspection of the graphs show that when the line for days to double becomes flat, there may soon be a decline or increase to the count of new cases. This has happened three times since April. When the slope of the line for doubling is steep, either going up or down, there is unlikely to be a change soon in the growth or decline in new cases.

The current lines for case doubling now shows some indication of going flat soon. I expect we will see the number of new virus cases continue to increase, but we may have a change of direction starting. Perhaps the changing recommendations for controlling the virus are beginning to have an impact.

There was an error in my original logic posted on November 14. During the upward slope periods of the Days to Double graph, the actual number of daily cases are declining. I reconsidered how to resolve this contradiction in logic.

I have added a new graph with a calculation of the slope of the new case numbers (current case count minus past case count divided by the number of days). The slope of a curve is the rate of change of the plotted line. If we were plotting velocity, the slope would be the acceleration. The slope is a better representation of the virus growth because the slope goes negative when the trend in cases starts going down.

volvolugnut

I have updated the graphs for the latest week (Feb 6 to Feb 13). The New Case Slope graph shows an increase in the past week but continues negative. We have not seen this degree of negative growth in new cases since the start of the Covid-19 battle. Meanwhile Days to Double graph shows a strong increasing trend for 7 day, 14 day and 21 day lines in the past week. The Days to Double is similar to the period in early September of last year but continues to exceed the September results.

There is good evidence here for encouragement. New case numbers continue to decrease, but are still very high in absolute numbers.

Stay safe out there.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for February 14, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Islands (0.180) with 2542 cases, Minnesota (0.099) with 473,567 cases, New Hampshire (0.086) with 70,785 cases, Wyoming (0.063) with 53,136 cases, and Oklahoma (0.058) with 413,542 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 64 of last 122 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 141 of last 193 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 98 of last 138 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 61 of last 148 days. Oklahoma has been in top 5 list for 32 of last 86 days.

Oregon, Delaware, Kansas, and Alaska did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. No areas were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). No areas were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00673 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00901. This is not population or case number weighted. Since Saturday January 30, 2021, 16 of the 16 days had growth rates below 0.015. A growth rate of 0.015 implies a doubling of new cases in 46 days. The growth rates have not been this low for this many days since I began recording data. Yesterday's growth rate was the lowest ever calculated and the next lowest was .0089 on February 8, 2021.

Yesterday's new case count was 64,297, the lowest since October 21,2020 when it was 60,889. Daily active case counts have the beginning of a flat line trend with a slight decline. This last occurred for several weeks in September 2020. This is very encouraging.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for February 15, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Minnesota (0.079) with 474,169 cases, New Hampshire (0.069) with 71,017 cases, Vermont (0.065) with 13,862 cases, North Dakota (0.060) with 98,643 cases, and Montana (0.050) with 97,539 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 142 of last 194 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 99 of last 139 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 141 of last 228 days. Montana has been in top 5 list for 14 of last 48 days.

Oregon, Delaware, Kansas, Hawaii, and Alaska did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Connecticut was over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). No areas were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). Connecticut did not report the previous two days. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00553 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00673. This is not population or case number weighted. Since Saturday January 30, 2021, 17 of the 17 days had growth rates below 0.015. A growth rate of 0.015 implies a doubling of new cases in 46 days. The growth rates have not been this low for this many days since I began recording data. Yesterday's growth rate was the lowest ever calculated at 0.00553.

Yesterday's new case count was 52,785, the lowest since October 13, 2020 when it was 57,534. Daily active case counts have the beginning of a flat line trend with a notable decline. This last occurred for several weeks in September 2020. This is very encouraging.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

I have created a new spreadsheet looking at the possible immunity of each state from vaccination, previous cases and current cases of COVID-19. The total of these percentages should give a good indication of the relative safety of each state. Information is gathered from Worldometer and New York Times published information. Any errors and misrepresentation are my own. Results will change daily, but I will try to report shortly after each weekend.

State Immunity results for week ending February 13, 2021.
The top 5 states are Alaska, Ohio, Virginia, Arizona, and New Mexico. The bottom 5 states are Idaho, Maryland, Washington, Rhode Island, and Pennsylvania.

Last weeks report had errors.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for February 16, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Wyoming (0.278) with 53,351 cases, North Dakota (0.180) with 98,781 cases, South Dakota (0.104) with 110,593 cases, New Hampshire (0.067) with 71,215 cases, and Minnesota (0.063) with 474,621 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 62 of last 150 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 142 of last 229 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 100 of last 140 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 143 of last 195 days.

Oregon, Delaware, Kansas, Hawaii, and Alaska did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Idaho, Washington, Wyoming, and Federal Prisons were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). North Dakota, Rhode Island, and South Dakota were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). Idaho, Wyoming, and Federal Prisons did not report the previous day. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00670 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00553. This is not population or case number weighted. Since Saturday January 30, 2021, 18 of the 18 days had growth rates below 0.015. A growth rate of 0.015 implies a doubling of new cases in 46 days. The growth rates have not been this low for this many days since I began recording data.

Daily active case counts have the beginning of a flat line trend with a notable decline. This last occurred for several weeks in September 2020. This is very encouraging.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for February 17, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: New Hampshire (0.263) with 71,965 cases, North Dakota (0.153) with 98,901 cases, Wyoming (0.144) with 53,450 cases, Minnesota (0.112) with 475,379 cases, and Montana (0.088) with 97,900 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 101 of last 141 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 143 of last 230 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 63 of last 151 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 144 of last 196 days. Montana has been in top 5 list for 15 of last 50 days.

Oregon, Delaware, Kansas, Hawaii, and Alaska did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and US Military were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Arkansas, Idaho, Michigan, and Missouri were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00765 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00670. This is not population or case number weighted. Since Saturday January 30, 2021, 19 of the 19 days had growth rates below 0.015. A growth rate of 0.015 implies a doubling of new cases in 46 days. The growth rates have not been this low for this many days since I began recording data.

Daily active case counts have the beginning of a flat line trend with a notable decline. This last occurred for several weeks in September 2020. This is very encouraging.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for February 18, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: North Dakota (0.167) with 99,034 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.165) with 2558 cases, Minnesota (0.142) with 476,292 cases, New Hampshire (0.129) with 72,399 cases, and Wyoming (0.108) with 53,531 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 144 of last 231 days. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 65 of last 126 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 145 of last 197 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 102 of last 142 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 64 of last 152 days.

Oregon, Delaware, Kansas, Hawaii, and Alaska did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Louisiana, Missouri, US Virgin Islands, Veterans Affairs, and Federal Prisons were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Iowa, Maine, Rhode Island, Utah, and Navajo Nation were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00737 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00765. This is not population or case number weighted. Since Sunday February 7, 2021, 9 of the 12 days had growth rates below 0.010. A growth rate of 0.010 implies a doubling of new cases in 70 days. The growth rates have not been this low for this many days since I began recording data.

Daily active case counts have the beginning of a flat line trend with a notable decline. This decrease in active case numbers has not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020. This is very encouraging.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for February 19, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Guam (0.213) with 7715 cases, Wyoming (0.211) with 53,683 cases, Minnesota (0.147) with 477,287 cases, North Dakota (0.142) with 99,153 cases, and New Hampshire (0.121) with 72,767 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. Guam has been in top 5 list for 18 of last 50 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 65 of last 153 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 146 of last 198 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 145 of last 232 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 103 of last 143 days.

Oregon, Delaware, Kansas, Hawaii, and Alaska did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Guam , Nebraska, US Military, and Navajo Nation were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Kentucky, Texas, and Veterans Affairs were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). Nebraska and US Military did not report the previous day. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00844 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00737. This is not population or case number weighted. Since Sunday February 7, 2021, 10 of the 13 days had growth rates below 0.010. A growth rate of 0.010 implies a doubling of new cases in 70 days. The growth rates have not been this low for this many days since I began recording data.

Daily active case counts have the beginning of a flat line trend with a notable decline. This decrease in active case numbers has not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020. This is very encouraging.

volvolugnut