Coronavirus Thread

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for May 6, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Wyoming (0.179) with 58,527 cases, New Hampshire (0.139) with 96,134 cases, North Dakota (0.138) with 108,218 cases, Minnesota (0.128) with 584,227 cases, and Montana (0.124) with 109,588 cases. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 113 of last 228 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 193 of last 308 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 196 of last 308 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 201 of last 274 days. Montana has been in top 5 list for 63 of last 128 days.

Hawaii, Louisiana, Maine, Nebraska, and South Carolina did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. New Mexico, Tennessee, and Navajo Nation were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Alabama, Michigan, North Carolina, and Veterans Affairs were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many states now do not report every day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00714 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00687. This is not population or case number weighted.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline over the last couple months. The number of active cases have dropped about 25% since the peak. This decrease in active case numbers had not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020.

Volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for May 7, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Islands (0.427) with 3210 cases, Wyoming (0.200) with 58,623 cases, Montana (0.141) with 109,737 cases, North Dakota (0.122) with 108,341 cases, and New Hampshire (0.110) with 96,337 cases. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 8 of last 15 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 114 of last 229 days. Montana has been in top 5 list for 64 of last 129 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 197 of last 309 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 194 of last 309 days.

Hawaii, Louisiana, Maine, Nebraska, and South Carolina did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. New Mexico, Tennessee, and Navajo Nation were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Alabama, Michigan, North Carolina, and Veterans Affairs were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many states now do not report every day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00742 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00714. This is not population or case number weighted.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline over the last couple months. The number of active cases have dropped about 25% since the peak. This decrease in active case numbers had not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020.

Volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for May 8, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Montana (0.142) with 109,889 cases, Guam (0.116) with 8034 cases, Arkansas (0.110) with 337,415 cases, North Dakota (0.100) with 108,439 cases, and New Hampshire (0.093) with 96,501 cases. Montana has been in top 5 list for 65 of last 130 days. Guam has been in top 5 list for 19 of last 36 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 117 of last 261 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 198 of last 310 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 195 of last 310 days.

Hawaii, Louisiana, Maine, Nebraska, and South Carolina did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Alabama was over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Puerto Rico was over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many states now do not report every day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00550 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00742. This is not population or case number weighted.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline over the last couple months. The number of active cases have dropped about 25% since the peak. This decrease in active case numbers had not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020.

Volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.


To give some context to these changes, I have calculated the average growth rate for each week back to April. The growth rate is calculated as the number of new cases each day divided by the number of active cases for the previous day. There is a typical weekly pattern of rising cases each week and falling case numbers on the weekends. I have calculated the 7 day average of the growth rate for Saturday to Friday of each week.

Using the 7 day growth rate, a calculation can be made of the number of days for the new cases to double. This calculation uses (1+Growth Rate) to the exponential of 1/X and solved for when this equation equals 2 (doubling of new cases). Variable X is the number of days to double the new cases count. I have made this calculation using 14 day and 21 day growth rate averages as well.

A graph using the average for 7, 14, and 21 days and showing the days to double new case counts for April to middle of November is below. Another graph shows the 7 day average new virus cases counts for the same period.

Inspection of the graphs show that when the line for days to double becomes flat, there may soon be a decline or increase to the count of new cases. This has happened three times since April. When the slope of the line for doubling is steep, either going up or down, there is unlikely to be a change soon in the growth or decline in new cases.

The current lines for case doubling now shows some indication of going flat soon. I expect we will see the number of new virus cases continue to increase, but we may have a change of direction starting. Perhaps the changing recommendations for controlling the virus are beginning to have an impact.

There was an error in my original logic posted on November 14. During the upward slope periods of the Days to Double graph, the actual number of daily cases are declining. I reconsidered how to resolve this contradiction in logic.

I have added a new graph with a calculation of the slope of the new case numbers (current case count minus past case count divided by the number of days). The slope of a curve is the rate of change of the plotted line. If we were plotting velocity, the slope would be the acceleration. The slope is a better representation of the virus growth because the slope goes negative when the trend in cases starts going down.

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I have updated the graphs for the latest week (May 2 to May 8 ). The New Case Slope graph shows another decrease in the past week and stayed below zero for the third week since the end of March 2021. Days to Double graph has continued an increase for 7 day, 14 day, and 21 day lines in the past week. This continues a strong indication of improvement for all three measures. This week the new case count dropped below the levels for the middle of March 2021.

Stay safe out there.

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[volvolugnut]

I have created a new spreadsheet looking at the possible immunity of each state from vaccination, previous cases and current cases of COVID-19. The total of these percentages should give a good indication of the relative safety of each state. Information is gathered from Worldometer and New York Times published information. Any errors and misrepresentation are my own. Results will change daily, but I will try to report shortly after each weekend.

State Immunity results for week ending May 8, 2021.
The top 5 states are Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New Jersey, and New Hampshire. The bottom 5 states are Mississippi, Louisiana, Alabama, Wyoming, and Idaho.

The top five states have average positive test cases plus vaccination of 67.06 %. The bottom five states have average positive test cases plus vaccination of 44.19 %. The average, unweighted for all states recovered cases plus vaccination is 54.81 %.

I have added a graph showing the progress of the top 5 states, bottom 5 states and US average percent vaccinated and recovered
from the Coronavirus. The top and bottom 5 states change from week to week.

Progress continues for top five, bottom five and US state averages. However, most states are slowing in their vaccinations and the gap between the best and the worst 5 states is getting wider. We are still not near 'herd immunity' level by experts definition.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for May 9, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: New Hampshire (0.064) with 96,624 cases, Minnesota (0.061) with 587,762 cases, West Virginia (0.058) with 156,406 cases, North Dakota (0.045) with 108,482 cases, and Massachusetts (0.045) with 697,398 cases. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 196 of last 311 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 202 of last 277 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 199 of last 311 days.

Hawaii, Louisiana, Maine, Nebraska, and South Carolina did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. No areas were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Alabama was over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many states now do not report every day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00344 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00550. This is not population or case number weighted. The growth rate from yesterday was the lowest ever recorded. The previous low was .00475 on March 7, 2021.
However, this measure is less relevant than previously because states are not reporting every day. Some states are changing the definition of recovery.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline over the last couple months. The number of active cases have dropped about 25% since the peak. This decrease in active case numbers had not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020.

Volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for May 10, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Wyoming (0.280) with 58,764 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.148) with 3223 cases, Mississippi (0.125) with 313,675 cases, New Hampshire (0.112) with 96,801 cases, and Minnesota (0.098) with 588,592 cases. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 115 of last 232 days. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 9 of last 18 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 197 of last 312 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 203 of last 278 days.

Hawaii, Louisiana, Maine, Nebraska, and South Carolina did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Connecticut, Idaho, Mississippi, and Wyoming were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Oklahoma, South Dakota, and Washington were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many states now do not report every day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00468 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00344. This is not population or case number weighted.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline over the last couple months. The number of active cases have dropped about 28% since the peak. This decrease in active case numbers had not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020.

Volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for May 11, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Montana (0.156) with 110,107 cases, North Dakota (0.154) with 108,652 cases, Wyoming (0.149) with 58,835 cases, Arkansas (0.110) with 337,819 cases, and South Dakota (0.103) with 123,435 cases. Montana has been in top 5 list for 66 of last 131 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 200 of last 312 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 116 of last 233 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 118 of last 264 days.

Hawaii, Louisiana, Maine, Nebraska, and South Carolina did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. District of Columbia, South Dakota, Tennessee, and Federal Prisons were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Idaho, Kentucky, Montana, Nevada, North Dakota, Rhode Island, and Navajo Nation were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many states now do not report every day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00544 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00468. This is not population or case number weighted.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline over the last couple months. The number of active cases have dropped about 28% since the peak. This decrease in active case numbers had not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020.

Volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for May 12, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Montana (0.204) with 110,317 cases, Guam (0.193) with 8061 cases, North Dakota (0.143) with 108,763 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.138) with 3236 cases, and Wyoming (0.117) with 58,893 cases. Montana has been in top 5 list for 67 of last 132 days. Guam has been in top 5 list for 20 of last 40 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 201 of last 313 days. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 10 of last 20 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 117 of last 234 days.

Hawaii, Louisiana, Maine, Nebraska, and South Carolina did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Alaska, Guam, Kansas, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, Tennessee, US Virgin Islands, and Federal Prisons were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Idaho, Iowa, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, South Dakota, Utah, and US Military were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many states now do not report every day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00560 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00544. This is not population or case number weighted.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline over the last couple months. The number of active cases have dropped about 28% since the peak. This decrease in active case numbers had not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020.

Volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for May 13, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Islands (0.298) with 3261 cases, Wyoming (0.196) with 58,996 cases, New Hampshire (0.150) with 97,304 cases, North Dakota (0.147) with 108,877 cases, and Minnesota (0.103) with 591,445 cases. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 11 of last 21 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 118 of last 235 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 198 of last 315 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 202 of last 314 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 204 of last 281 days.

Hawaii, Louisiana, Maine, Nebraska, and South Carolina did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Alabama and US Virgin Islands were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Alaska, Colorado, North Carolina, Oklahoma, and Tennessee were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many states now do not report every day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00625 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00560. This is not population or case number weighted.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline over the last couple months. The number of active cases have dropped about 28% since the peak. This decrease in active case numbers had not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020.

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