Coronavirus Thread

Post by **volvolugnut** » 20 Apr 2021, 13:45

volvolugnut wrote: ↑09 Apr 2021, 12:45 I have created a new spreadsheet looking at the possible immunity of each state from vaccination, previous cases and current cases of COVID-19. The total of these percentages should give a good indication of the relative safety of each state. Information is gathered from Worldometer and New York Times published information. Any errors and misrepresentation are my own. Results will change daily, but I will try to report shortly after each weekend.

State Immunity results for week ending April 17, 2021.
The top 5 states are New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, and South Dakota. The bottom 5 states are Mississippi, Alabama, Louisiana, Hawaii, and Wyoming.

The top five states have average positive test cases plus vaccination of 58.8 %. The bottom five states have average positive test cases plus vaccination of 39.5 %. The average, unweighted for all states recovered cases plus vaccination is 48.3 %.

I have added a graph showing the progress of the top 5 states, bottom 5 states and US average percent vaccinated and recovered
from the Coronavirus. The top and bottom 5 states change from week to week. Labels for the US average and top 5 states were corrected on March 17, 2021.

Progress continues for top five, bottom five and US state averages. However, the best states are accelerating their percentage and the worst 5 states are slowing their growth. We are still not near 'herd immunity' level by experts definition.

volvolugnut

Post by **volvolugnut** » 21 Apr 2021, 09:22

volvolugnut wrote: ↑20 Apr 2021, 13:30 More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for April 20, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: North Dakota (0.236) with 106,042 cases, Wyoming (0.218) with 57,456 cases, Montana (0.176) with 107,379 cases, Arkansas (0.107) with 333,709 cases, and Guam (0.104) with 7884 cases. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 184 of last 292 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 101 of last 212 days. Montana has been in top 5 list for 50 of last 112 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 109 of last 243 days. Guam has been in top 5 list for 10 of last 18 days.

Hawaii, Louisiana, Maine, and South Carolina did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. No areas were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Idaho, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, North Dakota, Rhode Island, Texas, and Wyoming were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many states now do not report every day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00881 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00753. This is not population or case number weighted.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline over the last several weeks. The number of active cases have dropped about 24% since the peak. This decrease in active case numbers had not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020. However, the last couple weeks have not extended this decrease in active case counts.

volvolugnut

Post by **volvolugnut** » 22 Apr 2021, 08:22

volvolugnut wrote: ↑21 Apr 2021, 09:22 More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for April 21, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Guam (0.265) with 7897 cases, Arkansas (0.189) with 334,061 cases, Wyoming (0.165) with 57,518 cases, North Dakota (0.164) with 106,218 cases, and Montana (0.154) with 107,537 cases. Guam has been in top 5 list for 11 of last 19 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 110 of last 244 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 102 of last 213 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 185 of last 293 days. Montana has been in top 5 list for 51 of last 113 days.

Hawaii, Louisiana, Maine, and South Carolina did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Alaska, Arkansas, Nevada, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and US Military were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Guam, Idaho, Kentucky, Missouri, New Mexico, Puerto Rico, Utah, and Veterans Affairs were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many states now do not report every day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00950 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00881. This is not population or case number weighted.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline over the last several weeks. The number of active cases have dropped about 24% since the peak. This decrease in active case numbers had not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020. However, the last couple weeks have not extended this decrease in active case counts.

volvolugnut

Post by **volvolugnut** » 23 Apr 2021, 08:30

volvolugnut wrote: ↑22 Apr 2021, 08:22 More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for April 22, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Islands (0.462) with 3068 cases, Wyoming (0.219) with 57,613 cases, Guam (0.197) with 7909 cases, New Hampshire (0.194) with 92,991 cases, and Montana (0.189) with 107,718 cases. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 103 of last 214 days. Guam has been in top 5 list for 12 of last 20 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 188 of last 294 days. Montana has been in top 5 list for 52 of last 114 days.

Hawaii, Louisiana, Maine, and South Carolina did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Tennessee, and US Virgin Islands were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Alabama, Alaska, Colorado, Mississippi, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, and Veterans Affairs were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many states now do not report every day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00980 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00950. This is not population or case number weighted.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline over the last several weeks. The number of active cases have dropped about 24% since the peak. This decrease in active case numbers had not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020. However, the last couple weeks have not extended this decrease in active case counts.

volvolugnut

Post by **volvolugnut** » 24 Apr 2021, 08:32

volvolugnut wrote: ↑23 Apr 2021, 08:30 More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for April 23, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Islands (0.211) with 3080 cases, Wyoming (0.190) with 57,696 cases, Montana (0.148) with 107,873 cases, North Dakota (0.132) with 106,537 cases, and Minnesota (0.128) with 564,584 cases. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 104 of last 215 days. Montana has been in top 5 list for 53 of last 115 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 186 of last 295 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 193 of last 261 days.

Hawaii, Louisiana, Maine, and South Carolina did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Navajo Nation was over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). US Military was over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many states now do not report every day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00971 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00980. This is not population or case number weighted.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline over the last several weeks. The number of active cases have dropped about 24% since the peak. This decrease in active case numbers had not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020. However, the last couple weeks have not extended this decrease in active case counts.

volvolugnut

Post by **volvolugnut** » 25 Apr 2021, 08:22

volvolugnut wrote: ↑24 Apr 2021, 08:32 More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for April 24, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Kansas (0.253) with 309,214 cases, Montana (0.174) with 108,048 cases, Minnesota (0.119) with 566,687 cases, North Dakota (0.102) with 106,656 cases, and New Hampshire (0.097) with 93,542 cases. Montana has been in top 5 list for 54 of last 116 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 194 of last 262 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 187 of last 296 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 189 of last 296 days.

Hawaii, Louisiana, Maine, and South Carolina did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Kansas was over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Kansas had not reported for several days. Veterans Affairs were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many states now do not report every day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00777 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00971. This is not population or case number weighted.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline over the last several weeks. The number of active cases have dropped about 24% since the peak. This decrease in active case numbers had not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020. However, the last couple weeks have not extended this decrease in active case counts.

volvolugnut

Post by **volvolugnut** » 26 Apr 2021, 08:38

volvolugnut wrote: ↑25 Apr 2021, 08:22 More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for April 25, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Minnesota (0.091) with 568,243 cases, New Hampshire (0.088) with 93,821 cases, Montana (0.050) with 108,097 cases, Wisconsin (0.043) with 594,682 cases, and West Virginia (0.043) with 151,382 cases. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 195 of last 263 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 190 of last 297 days. Montana has been in top 5 list for 55 of last 117 days.

Hawaii, Louisiana, Maine, and South Carolina did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. No areas were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). No areas were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many states now do not report every day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00506 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00777. This is not population or case number weighted.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline over the last several weeks. The number of active cases have dropped about 24% since the peak. This decrease in active case numbers had not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020. However, the last couple weeks have not extended this decrease in active case counts.

volvolugnut

Post by **volvolugnut** » 26 Apr 2021, 08:52

volvolugnut wrote: ↑18 Apr 2021, 08:58 More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

To give some context to these changes, I have calculated the average growth rate for each week back to April. The growth rate is calculated as the number of new cases each day divided by the number of active cases for the previous day. There is a typical weekly pattern of rising cases each week and falling case numbers on the weekends. I have calculated the 7 day average of the growth rate for Saturday to Friday of each week.

Using the 7 day growth rate, a calculation can be made of the number of days for the new cases to double. This calculation uses (1+Growth Rate) to the exponential of 1/X and solved for when this equation equals 2 (doubling of new cases). Variable X is the number of days to double the new cases count. I have made this calculation using 14 day and 21 day growth rate averages as well.

A graph using the average for 7, 14, and 21 days and showing the days to double new case counts for April to middle of November is below. Another graph shows the 7 day average new virus cases counts for the same period.

Inspection of the graphs show that when the line for days to double becomes flat, there may soon be a decline or increase to the count of new cases. This has happened three times since April. When the slope of the line for doubling is steep, either going up or down, there is unlikely to be a change soon in the growth or decline in new cases.

The current lines for case doubling now shows some indication of going flat soon. I expect we will see the number of new virus cases continue to increase, but we may have a change of direction starting. Perhaps the changing recommendations for controlling the virus are beginning to have an impact.

There was an error in my original logic posted on November 14. During the upward slope periods of the Days to Double graph, the actual number of daily cases are declining. I reconsidered how to resolve this contradiction in logic.

I have added a new graph with a calculation of the slope of the new case numbers (current case count minus past case count divided by the number of days). The slope of a curve is the rate of change of the plotted line. If we were plotting velocity, the slope would be the acceleration. The slope is a better representation of the virus growth because the slope goes negative when the trend in cases starts going down.

volvolugnut

I have updated the graphs for the latest week (April 18 to April 25). The New Case Slope graph shows a decrease in the past week and is now below zero for the first time since the end of March 2021. Days to Double graph has changed to an increase for 7 day, 14 day, and 21 day lines in the past week. This is a strong indication of improvement for all three to increase in one week. However, the trend so far is for only one week. We are still well above the new case levels of the middle of March 2021.

Stay safe out there.

volvolugnut

Post by **volvolugnut** » 27 Apr 2021, 09:32

volvolugnut wrote: ↑26 Apr 2021, 08:38 More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for April 26, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Wyoming (0.277) with 57,818 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.172) with 3090 cases, North Dakota (0.122) with 106,809 cases, Guam (0.119) with 7923 cases, and Minnesota (0.073) with 569,440 cases. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 105 of last 218 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 188 of last 298 days. Guam has been in top 5 list for 13 of last 24 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 196 of last 264 days.

Hawaii, Louisiana, Maine, and South Carolina did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Connecticut, Idaho, Wyoming, and US Military were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Washington were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many states now do not report every day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00692 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00506. This is not population or case number weighted.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline over the last several weeks. The number of active cases have dropped about 24% since the peak. This decrease in active case numbers had not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020. However, the last couple weeks have not extended this decrease in active case counts.

volvolugnut

Post by **volvolugnut** » 28 Apr 2021, 08:03

volvolugnut wrote: ↑27 Apr 2021, 09:32 More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for April 27, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Guam (0.246) with 7939 cases, North Dakota (0.183) with 106,998 cases, Montana (0.182) with 108,287 cases, Wyoming (0.159) with 57,883 cases, and Arkansas (0.123) with 334,998 cases. Guam has been in top 5 list for 14 of last 25 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 189 of last 299 days. Montana has been in top 5 list for 56 of last 119 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 106 of last 219 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 111 of last 250 days.

Hawaii, Louisiana, Maine, and South Carolina did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Guam, Tennessee, and Navajo Nation were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Alaska, Arkansas, Idaho, Kentucky, Montana, Nevada, North Dakota, Rhode Island, and Texas were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many states now do not report every day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00764 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00692. This is not population or case number weighted.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline over the last several weeks. The number of active cases have dropped about 24% since the peak. This decrease in active case numbers had not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020. However, the last couple weeks have not extended this decrease in active case counts.

volvolugnut

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