Coronavirus Thread

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for August 23, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Wyoming (0.320) with 71,562 cases, Montana (0.186) with 122,964 cases, Minnesota (0.155) with 635,222 cases, Guam (0.137) with 9486 cases, and Connecticut (0.103) with 367,410 cases. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 170 of last 337 days. Montana has been in top 5 list for 114 of last 236 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 252 of last 322 days. Guam has been in top 5 list for 52 of last 143 days.

Alabama, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0150 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00416. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 3 states did not report new cases.

For 47 of the last 73 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have a significant increase the last several weeks. There have been 45 of last 84 days with increasing active case numbers.

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[volvolugnut]

I have created a new spreadsheet looking at the possible immunity of each state from vaccination, previous cases and current cases of COVID-19. The total of these percentages should give a good indication of the relative safety of each state. Information is gathered from Worldometer and Washington Post published information. Any errors and misrepresentation are my own. Results will change daily, but I will try to report shortly after each weekend.

State Immunity results for August 24, 2021.
The top 5 states are Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Connecticut, New Jersey, and Vermont. The bottom 5 states are Idaho, Wyoming, West Virginia, Mississippi, Indiana. These top and bottom states do not change much from week to week.

The top five states have average positive test cases plus vaccination of 83.03 %. The bottom five states have average positive test cases plus vaccination of 57.89 %. The average, unweighted for all states recovered cases plus vaccination is 70.14 %.

I have added a graph showing the progress of the top 5 states, bottom 5 states and US average percent vaccinated and recovered
from the Coronavirus.

Progress continues for top five, bottom 5 states, and US state averages.

As of this report, 23 states have at least 70 % combined total with at least one vaccine shot or have recovered from coronavirus.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for August 24, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Minnesota (0.348) with 639,059 cases, South Dakota (0.303) with 129,411 cases, North Dakota (0.263) with 115,312 cases, Montana (0.188) with 123,674 cases, and Guam (0.185) with 9612 cases. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 253 of last 323 days. South Dakota has been in top 5 list for 5 of last 14 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 315 of last 384 days. Montana has been in top 5 list for 115 of last 237 days. Guam has been in top 5 list for 53 of last 144 days.

Alabama, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0194 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0150. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 5 states did not report new cases.

For 48 of the last 74 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have a significant increase the last several weeks. There have been 46 of last 85 days with increasing active case numbers.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for August 25, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: North Dakota (0.211) with 115,668 cases, Guam (0.182) with 9759 cases, Wyoming (0.156) with 72,528 cases, Montana (0.155) with 124,278 cases, and South Dakota (0.146) with 129,866 cases. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 316 of last 385 days. Guam has been in top 5 list for 54 of last 145 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 171 of last 339 days. Montana has been in top 5 list for 116 of last 238 days. South Dakota has been in top 5 list for 6 of last 15 days.

Alabama, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0223 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0194. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 2 states did not report new cases.

For 49 of the last 75 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Yesterday the new case count was 171,737, the highest since January 23, 2021 when it was 172,913.

Yesterday the new death count was 1287, the highest since March 26, 2021 when it was 1289. New daily deaths have risen significantly in the last several weeks.

Daily active case counts have a significant increase the last several weeks. There have been 47 of last 86 days with increasing active case numbers.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for August 26, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Islands (0.266) with 5760 cases, Oklahoma (0.206) with 539,074 cases, North Dakota (0.192) with 116,022 cases, Minnesota (0.170) with 642,288 cases, and Montana (0.154) with 124,910 cases. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 59 of last 126 days. Oklahoma has been in top 5 list for 33 of last 99 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 317 of last 386 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 254 of last 325 days. Montana has been in top 5 list for 117 of last 239 days.

Alabama, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0217 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0223. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 5 states did not report new cases.

For 50 of the last 76 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have a significant increase the last several weeks. There have been 48 of last 87 days with increasing active case numbers.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for August 27, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Guam (0.192) with 10,046 cases, Montana (0.167) with 125,616 cases, Minnesota (0.161) with 644,190 cases, Oklahoma (0.155) with 542,412 cases, and North Dakota (0.141) with 116,305 cases. Guam has been in top 5 list for 55 of last 147 days. Montana has been in top 5 list for 118 of last 240 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 255 of last 326 days. Oklahoma has been in top 5 list for 34 of last 100 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 318 of last 387 days.

Alabama, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0239 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0217. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 2 states did not report new cases.

For 51 of the last 77 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Yesterday's new case count was 190,370 and the highest since January 22, 2021 when it was 192,065.

Yesterday's new death count was 1304 and the highest since March 24, 2021 when it was 1405.

Daily active case counts have a significant increase the last several weeks. There have been 49 of last 88 days with increasing active case numbers.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for August 28, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: North Dakota (0.177) with 116,666 cases, Oklahoma (0.171) with 546,257 cases, Guam (0.101) with 10,155 cases, Arkansas (0.089) with 448,596 cases, and Ohio (0.083) with 1,207,932 cases. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 319 of last 388 days. Oklahoma has been in top 5 list for 35 of last 101 days. Guam has been in top 5 list for 56 of last 148 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 161 of last 371 days.

Alabama, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00800 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0239. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 34 states did not report new cases.

For 52 of the last 78 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have a significant increase the last several weeks. There have been 50 of last 89 days with increasing active case numbers.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.


To give some context to these changes, I have calculated the average growth rate for each week back to April. The growth rate is calculated as the number of new cases each day divided by the number of active cases for the previous day. There is a typical weekly pattern of rising cases each week and falling case numbers on the weekends. I have calculated the 7 day average of the growth rate for Saturday to Friday of each week.

Using the 7 day growth rate, a calculation can be made of the number of days for the new cases to double. This calculation uses (1+Growth Rate) to the exponential of 1/X and solved for when this equation equals 2 (doubling of new cases). Variable X is the number of days to double the new cases count. I have made this calculation using 14 day and 21 day growth rate averages as well.

A graph using the average for 7, 14, and 21 days and showing the days to double new case counts for April to middle of November is below. Another graph shows the 7 day average new virus cases counts for the same period.

Inspection of the graphs show that when the line for days to double becomes flat, there may soon be a decline or increase to the count of new cases. This has happened three times since April. When the slope of the line for doubling is steep, either going up or down, there is unlikely to be a change soon in the growth or decline in new cases.

The current lines for case doubling now shows some indication of going flat soon. I expect we will see the number of new virus cases continue to increase, but we may have a change of direction starting. Perhaps the changing recommendations for controlling the virus are beginning to have an impact.

There was an error in my original logic posted on November 14. During the upward slope periods of the Days to Double graph, the actual number of daily cases are declining. I reconsidered how to resolve this contradiction in logic.

I have added a new graph with a calculation of the slope of the new case numbers (current case count minus past case count divided by the number of days). The slope of a curve is the rate of change of the plotted line. If we were plotting velocity, the slope would be the acceleration. The slope is a better representation of the virus growth because the slope goes negative when the trend in cases starts going down.

volvolugnut

I have updated the graphs for the latest week (August 22 to August 28). The New Case Slope graph shows a decrease in the past week, the second week of decline since early May. Days to Double graph had an slight decrease for 21 day lines in the past week. The Days to Double for the 7 day count has increased this week at 43 days (similar to the end of January 2021). This week the new case count has increased from the previous week. This is the eighth week of increase in the new case count since April.

Stay safe out there.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for August 29, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: North Dakota (0.081) with 116,838 cases, Guam (0.071) with 10,239 cases, Ohio (0.061) with 1,211,895 cases, Pennsylvania (0.055) with 1,294,730 cases, and Vermont (0.054) with 27,972 cases. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 320 of last 389 days. Guam has been in top 5 list for 57 of last 149 days.

Alabama, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00457 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00800. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 40 states did not report new cases.

For 53 of the last 79 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have a significant increase the last several weeks. There have been 51 of last 90 days with increasing active case numbers.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for August 30, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Wyoming (0.375) with 74,756 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.354) with 5848 cases, Montana (0.156) with 126,338 cases, Minnesota (0.148) with 646,094 cases, and South Dakota (0.116) with 131,239 cases. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 172 of last 344 days. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 60 of last 130 days. Montana has been in top 5 list for 119 of last 243 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 256 of last 329 days. South Dakota has been in top 5 list for 7 of last 20 days.

Alabama, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0146 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00457. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 40 states did not report new cases.

For 54 of the last 80 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have a significant increase the last several weeks. There have been 52 of last 91 days with increasing active case numbers.

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