Best Way To Start A Flooded Engine 1998v70 (with slight diversion to quantum mechanics , relativity, dark matter states,

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And the two who are On the unlucky 20% get the Orderof Lenin, while ours get an order of Lennon….imagine all the people.

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The most insoluble problem of all is how to get the people who don't understand numbers to understand them.

From NPR WWDTM show…

AW burger company brought out a burger to compete with the quarter pounder , which failed.

Apparently , the reviews were the public thought their 1/3 pounder was smaller than the 1/4 pounder.

Reported as non-urban myth



I guess that begats Lotto, car leasing, free shipping, and BMW Ownership.

[RickHaleParker]

Apparently , the reviews were the public thought their 1/3 pounder was smaller than the 1/4 pounder.

Change the name of a 1/4 pounder to the 2/8 pounder and they will think it is twice as big. Sale them like hot cakes.

[MrAl]

If they fire at the wrong time, the 10 billion dollar craft will sail right on eventually right out of the solar system, never to be seen or heard of again. Eventually leaving the heliosphere. Pretty crazy.
All we can do is hope and pray everything goes right.

It cost $10 billion because NASA designs hardware for a 99% success rate.

The Soviet space program designed missions for a 99% success rate but they designed the hardware for a 90% success rate at 1/10 the cost. Build two and launch both. 90% + (10% * 90% ) = 99% success rate. Same success rate for 2 billion instead of 10 billion. With two you can get up to twice the work done.

Apparently the 99 percent rate then didnt seem to work. I could quote a few examples right off the top of my head, but i really dont want to have to remember those occurrences. So in other words, it doesnt matter what they design for, nature has a way of messing things up. Just one, one tiny thing overlooked, and that's the end of that story.
I have to say though they have been doing a good job i think on this project maybe they finally realize that a measurement in inches is not the same as a measurement in the metric system. 2 does not equal 2 (e.g. one of the Mars projects).
So we come in full circle hoping and praying

The thing that bothers me so much i think is not only the money, which i think is secondary, it is the fact that the usefulness of a success here could change the way we view our place in the universe, alone or not, but if it goes wrong it will take a lot more time to find out unless maybe we get lucky and find life or ancient life on Mars or on one of the moons of some planet. I'd like to find out within my lifetime.

I like to think of things in a sort of fuzzy logic. Rather than AND, OR, NOT, i like to think of things in terms of probabilities, sort of like a confidence level. Can also think of it in terms of reliability as in electronic systems, mean time before failure, where the reliability goes down as the number of connections increase, which can be viewed as complexity. My confidence level for the work they put into this is probably 99 percent, but for the complexity i have to say maybe 10 percent maybe less, so i have conflicting thoughts on this. I also dont like exploding bolts (ha ha).

[RickHaleParker]

My confidence level for the work they put into this is probably 99 percent, but for the complexity i have to say maybe 10 percent maybe less, so i have conflicting thoughts on this. I also dont like exploding bolts (ha ha).

The companies that build the hardware components today are Six sigma companies or better. Six sigma is 99.99966% defect free. The first 80% is dirt cheap. You can get 80% defect free without even trying. From there the cost rises on a tangent.

Of course 99.99966%^X < 99.99966%. To get a 99% mission success rate they must be manufacturing at a level well above Six sigma, considering the complexity.

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I think airlines are the only place where six sigma touches us directly. Today, an air crash needs something like 6 confounding factors to occur.

[RickHaleParker]

I think airlines are the only place where six sigma touches us directly. Today, an air crash needs something like 6 confounding factors to occur.

Pretty close but, that would be Six Stigma not Six Sigma.

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I think airlines are the only place where six sigma touches us directly. Today, an air crash needs something like 6 confounding factors to occur.

Pretty close but, that would be Six Stigma not Six Sigma.

Nice!

[MrAl]

My confidence level for the work they put into this is probably 99 percent, but for the complexity i have to say maybe 10 percent maybe less, so i have conflicting thoughts on this. I also dont like exploding bolts (ha ha).

The companies that build the hardware components today are Six sigma companies or better. Six sigma is 99.99966% defect free. The first 80% is dirt cheap. You can get 80% defect free without even trying. From there the cost rises on a tangent.

Of course 99.99966%^X < 99.99966%. To get a 99% mission success rate they must be manufacturing at a level well above Six sigma, considering the complexity.

The New York Times reported that there are many scientists that are (and i quote) "terrified" about the launch. They say there is so much riding on this for NASA, but i see this as having a lot riding on this project for humanity. There is such a wide area of research this will make or break, or that becomes delayed or impossible. Remember this project cost is 10 billion, not million, and 20 or more years in the making. There are some that were working toward this goal for 30 years.
I think i have to void the 99 percent success rates because this is such a novel application with both time and money at stake, and even the reputation of NASA, and as everyone everywhere knows, launch operations are always risky.

[MrAl]

I think airlines are the only place where six sigma touches us directly. Today, an air crash needs something like 6 confounding factors to occur.

Are you trying to imply that nothing could go wrong?
Keep in mind that regular aircraft designs have been improving for many years now, while this space project is very novel and very complex. There are a host of things that will be done for the first time ever.

To add a lighter note to that though, i am happy that the Mars Rover project went well and is still going strong. To think we have a helicopter flying around on another planet now. That's a big achievement i think.
I just kinda wish Elon Musk was involved in this as he did some pretty amazing things too. if you ever saw one of his rockets land you might think it was a fake video.