Coronavirus Thread

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for October 23, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: North Dakota (0.131) with 144,559 cases, Oklahoma (0.104) with 639,720 cases, West Virginia (0.100) with 265,879 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.082) with 7134 cases, and Arkansas (0.075) with 509,999 cases. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 420 of last 444 days. Oklahoma has been in top 5 list for 56 of last 156 days. West Virginia has been in top 5 list for 24 of last 47 days. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 92 of last 184 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 177 of last 427 days.

Alabama, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00303 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00866. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 35 state did not report new cases.

For 104 of the last 134 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have started to decrease the last several weeks. There have been 18 of last 33 days with decreasing active case numbers.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.


To give some context to these changes, I have calculated the average growth rate for each week back to April. The growth rate is calculated as the number of new cases each day divided by the number of active cases for the previous day. There is a typical weekly pattern of rising cases each week and falling case numbers on the weekends. I have calculated the 7 day average of the growth rate for Saturday to Friday of each week.

Using the 7 day growth rate, a calculation can be made of the number of days for the new cases to double. This calculation uses (1+Growth Rate) to the exponential of 1/X and solved for when this equation equals 2 (doubling of new cases). Variable X is the number of days to double the new cases count. I have made this calculation using 14 day and 21 day growth rate averages as well.

A graph using the average for 7, 14, and 21 days and showing the days to double new case counts for April to middle of November is below. Another graph shows the 7 day average new virus cases counts for the same period.

Inspection of the graphs show that when the line for days to double becomes flat, there may soon be a decline or increase to the count of new cases. This has happened three times since April. When the slope of the line for doubling is steep, either going up or down, there is unlikely to be a change soon in the growth or decline in new cases.

The current lines for case doubling now shows some indication of going flat soon. I expect we will see the number of new virus cases continue to increase, but we may have a change of direction starting. Perhaps the changing recommendations for controlling the virus are beginning to have an impact.

There was an error in my original logic posted on November 14. During the upward slope periods of the Days to Double graph, the actual number of daily cases are declining. I reconsidered how to resolve this contradiction in logic.

I have added a new graph with a calculation of the slope of the new case numbers (current case count minus past case count divided by the number of days). The slope of a curve is the rate of change of the plotted line. If we were plotting velocity, the slope would be the acceleration. The slope is a better representation of the virus growth because the slope goes negative when the trend in cases starts going down.

volvolugnut

I have updated the graphs for the latest week (October 17 to October 23). The New Case Slope graph showed a increase in the past week but continues negative. The Days to Double for the 7 day, 14 day, and 21 day count had increases this week. The 21 day Days to Double line is now at 98 days.

This week the new case count average decreased from the previous week and continues a downward trend started seven weeks ago.
New case average weekly count is now at about the same level as the first of August 2021.

I am going to predict (and hope) this trend continues and cases drop until the Thanksgiving holiday week. Perhaps this increase will occur after school Fall breaks or Halloween parties. I predict new cases will rise as we reach the holiday season and people gather together indoors. Any bad judgement in this prediction is my own.

Stay safe out there. Don't get careless and keep up your defenses.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for October 24, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.075) with 266,521 cases, North Dakota (0.053) with 144,748 cases, Vermont (0.051) with 38,843 cases, Arkansas (0.043) with 510,245 cases, and Pennsylvania (0.032) with 1,538,296 cases. West Virginia has been in top 5 list for 25 of last 48 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 421 of last 445 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 178 of last 428 days.

Alabama, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00185 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00303. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 39 state did not report new cases.

For 104 of the last 135 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have started to decrease the last several weeks. There have been 19 of last 34 days with decreasing active case numbers.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for October 25, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Wyoming (0.269) with 101,083 cases, Minnesota (0.153) with 773,227 cases, Montana (0.129) with 171,981 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.120) with 7145 cases, and West Virginia (0.108) with 267,398 cases. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 24 of last 49 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 284 of last 385 days. Montana has been in top 5 list for 139 of last 299 days. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 93 of last 186 days. West Virginia has been in top 5 list for 26 of last 49 days.

Alabama, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00513 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00185. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 8 states did not report new cases.

For 105 of the last 136 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have started to decrease the last several weeks. There have been 20 of last 35 days with decreasing active case numbers.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for October 26, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Minnesota (0.347) with 779,749 cases, North Dakota (0.245) with 145,744 cases, Mississippi (0.175) with 503,322 cases, South Dakota (0.128) with 153,321 cases, and Wyoming (0.111) with 101,424 cases. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 285 of last 386 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 422 of last 447 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 25 of last 50 days.

Alabama, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00742 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00513. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 8 states did not report new cases.

For 106 of the last 137 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have started to decrease the last several weeks. There have been 21 of last 36 days with decreasing active case numbers.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

I have created a new spreadsheet looking at the possible immunity of each state from vaccination, previous cases and current cases of COVID-19. The total of these percentages should give a good indication of the relative safety of each state. Information is gathered from Worldometer and Washington Post published information. Any errors and misrepresentation are my own. Results will change daily, but I will try to report shortly after each weekend.

State Immunity results for October 27, 2021. I have not updated this information since August 24, 2021.
The top 5 states are Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey. The bottom 5 states are West Virginia, Idaho, Wyoming, Indiana, and Mississippi. These top and bottom states do not change much from week to week. These are nearly the same state list from August 2021.

The top five states have average positive test cases plus vaccination of 90.58 %. The bottom five states have average positive test cases plus vaccination of 66.47 %. The average, unweighted for all states recovered cases plus vaccination is 78.25 %.

I have added a graph showing the progress of the top 5 states, bottom 5 states and US average percent vaccinated and recovered
from the Coronavirus.

Progress continues for top five, bottom 5 states, and US state averages.

As of this report, 45 states have at least 70 % combined total with at least one vaccine shot or have recovered from coronavirus.

As of this report, 19 states have at least 80 % combined total with at least one vaccine shot or have recovered from coronavirus.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for October 27, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Islands (0.217) with 7172 cases, North Dakota (0.196) with 146,387 cases, Wyoming (0.166) with 101,912 cases, West Virginia (0.138) with 269,131 cases, and Oklahoma (0.136) with 642,362 cases. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 94 of last 188 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 423 of last 448 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 25 of last 51 days. West Virginia has been in top 5 list for 27 of last 51 days. Oklahoma has been in top 5 list for 57 of last 160 days.

Alabama, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00843 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00742. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 2 states did not report new cases.

For 107 of the last 138 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have started to decrease the last several weeks. There have been 22 of last 37 days with decreasing active case numbers.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

I have created a new spreadsheet looking at the possible immunity of each state from vaccination, previous cases and current cases of COVID-19. The total of these percentages should give a good indication of the relative safety of each state. Information is gathered from Worldometer and Washington Post published information. Any errors and misrepresentation are my own. Results will change daily, but I will try to report shortly after each weekend.

State Immunity results for October 27, 2021. I have not updated this information since August 24, 2021.
The top 5 states are Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey. The bottom 5 states are West Virginia, Idaho, Wyoming, Indiana, and Mississippi. These top and bottom states do not change much from week to week. These are nearly the same state list from August 2021.

The top five states have average positive test cases plus vaccination of 90.58 %. The bottom five states have average positive test cases plus vaccination of 66.47 %. The average, unweighted for all states recovered cases plus vaccination is 78.25 %.

I have added a graph showing the progress of the top 5 states, bottom 5 states and US average percent vaccinated and recovered
from the Coronavirus.

Progress continues for top five, bottom 5 states, and US state averages.

Of the bottom five states, West Virginia, Wyoming, and Mississippi have appeared in my top five growth rate states in the last two weeks.

As of this report, 45 states have at least 70 % combined total with at least one vaccine shot or have recovered from coronavirus.

As of this report, 19 states have at least 80 % combined total with at least one vaccine shot or have recovered from coronavirus.

EDIT October 28, 2021
I started thinking about the high number of states with high percentage of combined vaccine or Covid-19 recovery. The high percentage states also tend to be high population states. What if most of the US population now has some immunity? I ran some more numbers totaling the states populations.

Surprising results were found. US population with this combined immunity above 90 % were two states for a total population of 2.4 % of total US population. US population with this combined immunity above 80 % were 19 states for a total population of 46 % of total US population. US population with this combined immunity above 70 % were 45 states for a total population of 91 % of total US population.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for October 28, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Islands (0.197) with 7186 cases, North Dakota (0.191) with 147,053 cases, Minnesota (0.161) with 784,233 cases, Wyoming (0.146) with 102,403 cases, and West Virginia (0.127) with 270,082 cases. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 95 of last 189 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 424 of last 449 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 286 of last 388 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 26 of last 52 days. West Virginia has been in top 5 list for 28 of last 52 days.

Alabama, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00838 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00843. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 6 states did not report new cases.

For 108 of the last 139 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have started to decrease the last several weeks. There have been 23 of last 38 days with decreasing active case numbers.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for October 29, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Islands (0.212) with 7204 cases, Minnesota (0.183) with 787,550 cases, Wyoming (0.158) with 102,926 cases, Oklahoma (0.149) with 643,978 cases, and North Dakota (0.140) with 147,571 cases. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 96 of last 190 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 287 of last 389 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 27 of last 53 days. Oklahoma has been in top 5 list for 58 of last 162 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 425 of last 450 days.

Alabama, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00860 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00838. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 5 states did not report new cases.

For 109 of the last 140 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have started to decrease the last several weeks. There have been 23 of last 39 days with decreasing active case numbers.

volvolugnut